EVEN WORSE FOR OBAMA – AT 10:57 A.M. ET:  National Journal, in examining the president's political position, acknowledges that Mr. Obama's national numbers are not good, but asserts that his standing in battleground states that he must win is even worse, leading to thoughts – although it is very early in the campaign – of a Dem debacle: 

...while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.

Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from July 12-18.

Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.

The news gets worse from there. In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 39 percent of respondents grade his job performance as “excellent” or good,” with 60 percent saying it is “fair” or “poor.” The state has an unemployment rate well above the national average, and the president’s approval has suffered as a result.

COMMENT:  Other states, like Iowa and Pennsylvania, offer similar grimness.  As the article argues, if Obama can't turn around traditional Democratic states like Michigan, how can he expect to win more closely divided states like Virginia? 

But the piece also has a warning for the GOP, that the nomination of a very polarizing figure for president can turn the race around, and possibly but Barack Obama back in the White House.

Of course, if the economy starts to boom, these early polls will be forgotten history.  However, that appears to be unlikely.  Next year's election could redefine the direction of the country.  And then Obama can become secretary-general of the UN, and announce himself a citizen of the world.   Or has he don that already?

July 27, 2011